Elisabeth (Liz) Everett

US mortgage applications ↑1.8% in Early-Q2, the first weekly gain in 5 weeks, after the prior week’s 0.8% decline.
Refinance applications ↑5% weekly and ↑15% yearly as the avg. 30-yr fixed rate eased to low-6%, a ~1-mo low.
Purchase demand stayed soft. The seasonally adjusted purchase index ↓1% weekly and sat ↓3% yearly, with buyers hesitant amid economic uncertainty.
Refinance share reached 45.5% of total applications, up from 44.3%. Adjustable-rate mortgages made up 8.4%, showing limited appetite for rate risk.
Government-backed purchase activity weakened. FHA and VA purchase applications declined, while FHA share slipped to 18.2%, VA to 15.7%, and USDA held at 0.5%.
Separate new-home loan applications were stronger: ↑11% yearly and ↑26% MoM in Late-Q1, reaching the highest survey index level since 2012.
Modest rate relief unlocked refinance demand, but purchase activity remained constrained by affordability, economic uncertainty, and uneven inventory. Incremental rate moves co

Mortgage Demand Finally Ticked Higher Again

By Late-Q4 2025, avg. monthly mortgage payments for existing borrowers reached $2,005, the first time above $2K, after a yearly pressure from prices and rates.
That marked a ↑44% jump versus 2021, or >$600 more per month in three years, showing how sharply carrying costs had climbed.
New mortgages had already crossed $2K by September 2022, showing recent buyers absorbed the full hit from higher home prices and borrowing costs.
Experts said first-time buyers were getting squeezed, with some relying on family co-borrowers or gift funds, while others remained stuck renting.
Between Late-Q3 and Late-Q4 2025, sub-4% mortgage shares slipped, while 5%-6% and 6%+ shares grew, hinting the lock-in effect was easing slowly.
Even so, 50.6% of outstanding mortgages still carried rates at or below 4%, and ~78% remained below 6%, limiting listings and supporting prices.
Early-Spring indicators showed resilience, but rates rebounded after nearing ~6% in Mid-Q1, and experts said further easing wo