Miami to escape the home price correction in 2023 while 'overheated' housing markets like Austin get hammered, says Goldman Sachs

On one hand, the 2.4% drop in U.S. home prices seen between June and October is small relative to the housing crash's 26% national home price decline from the top in 2007 to the bottom in 2012. While the investment bank expects U.S. home prices to fall 6.1% in 2023, it doesn't expect a prolonged downturn like the previous bust: In 2024, Goldman Sachs expects U.S. home prices to rise 1% even as markets like Austin and Phoenix continue to fall. "Assuming the economy remains on the path to a soft landing, avoiding a recession, and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate falls back to 6.15% by year-end 2024, home price growth will likely shift from depreciation to below-trend appreciation in 2024," writes Goldman Sachs.

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