John McDade

Slide 1:
“2026 mortgage rates may drop to 5.9%, but still far from 2010s lows.”

Slide 2:
“Experts warn: rate drops won’t be dramatic or uniform across the country.”

Slide 3:
“Inflation expectations and federal deficits could keep rates stuck between 6–6.5%.”

Slide 4:
“High-5% rates might ease affordability pressures just enough to nudge buyers back.”

Slide 5:
“Mortgage originations could rise from $1.85T in 2025 to $2.32T in 2026.”

2026 Mortgage Optimism Meets Inflation Reality

Realtor.com forecasts a more balanced U.S. housing market in 2026 after several challenging years.
Mortgage rates are expected to average ~6.3%, still above pre-pandemic levels.
Home prices are projected to rise 2.2%, but inflation near 3% implies slight real-price declines.
Existing home sales are forecast to increase 1.7% to ~4.13M, easing a near 30-yr low.
Inventory is expected to rise 8.9%, while rents fall 1% as vacancy rates normalize.