Jehoshua Shapiro

3% Rates? Reality Check
Mortgage rates dipped below 3% in 2021, but the avg. 30-yr rate is now >6%.
Experts say 3% rates are unlikely anytime soon, since pandemic-era conditions that pushed rates down ended.
Pandemic Fed cuts began in March 2020; later inflation >5% in 2022 drove 11 rate hikes in 2022–2023.
Mortgage rates peaked at 7.79% in October 2023; many experts expect >6% for most of 2026.
Advice: don’t time rates; buy based on budget, consider refinancing later, and compare lenders, fees, and credit.
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I’m seeing buyers adjust to a higher-rate environment after the unusually low pandemic period. Instead of waiting for a perfect rate, the focus is shifting toward affordability, budgeting, and smart financing choices.
I’m seeing buyers adjust to a higher-rate environment after the unusually low pandemic period. Instead of waiting for a perfect rate, the focus is shifting toward affordability, budgeting, and smart financing choices.

Reality Check on 3% Mortgage Rates 2026

Mortgage rates hit highs
Mortgage rates reached their highest point in several months, with 30-yr fixed near mid-6%.
Purchase loan avgs.: 30-yr fixed ~6.5%, 15-yr fixed ~5.9%, 5/1 ARM ~6.7%, VA 30-yr ~6%.
Refinance rates ran higher than purchase loans, with 30-yr fixed refinance ~6.6% and 15-yr refinance ~6%.
30-yr loans stay popular for lower payments; 15-yr offers lower rates but higher payments from faster payoff.
Best rates typically go to borrowers with bigger down payments, stronger credit, and lower debt-to-income; APR better reflects total cost.
I’m seeing mortgage rates sitting at recent highs, with refinancing generally costing more than buying. Loan terms and rate types change monthly payments, and stronger borrower finances can matter more than waiting for rates to fall.