Mark Pulaski

Recent US mortgage application volume was nearly flat, ↑0.8% MoM, as 30-yr fixed rates inched higher to the high-6% range for borrowers.
Purchase applications posted a small weekly gain, ↑2%, while staying slightly below yearly levels, suggesting available inventory helped support transaction activity in many markets.
More borrowers chose ARMs for lower initial rates, with ARM share at 8%, the highest in five weeks, while 5/1 ARM rates stayed ~6%.
Refinance demand slipped ↓1% MoM and ↓19% yearly, as high borrowing costs left most homeowners with little incentive unless they wanted equity.
A mortgage tracker showed rates kept moving up recently, reaching their highest level since Late-Q2 2025 and reinforcing demand for lower-rate alternatives nationwide.

Riskier Mortgages Gain Ground as Rates Rise

US 30-yr mortgage rates reached the high-6% range in Late-Q3, while the 10-yr Treasury yield hit a 20-mo high as bond volatility persisted.
A central bank official said on September 1 that if inflation failed to trend lower, policymakers should act decisively and raise rates.
A rate-tracking tool put the odds of a quarter-point hike at ~68%, signaling markets increasingly expected tighter short-term policy in the United States.
A Late-Q3 policy hike would not directly set mortgage rates, but it would signal inflation remained a broader economic concern for the central bank.
An economist said buyers should not expect near-term mortgage relief, but faster inflation control could improve purchasing power and market conditions over the 6-12 mo.