Elena Russell, PFP, FMA, CFDS

Canada entered 2026 on slightly firmer footing, with the economy showing a mild rebound that could stabilize the mortgage market, not ignite a major surge.
An industry group estimated real GDP ↑~1.5% in Early-Q1 2026 and expected similar growth in Early-Q2, with inflation tracking near 3%.
After investment fell through 2025, private investment was expected to rebound ↑~3% in Early-Q1 and ↑~3% again in Early-Q2.
Business owners stayed cautious, directing limited capital toward maintenance and productivity instead of major expansion as costs stayed high and demand remained soft.
An economist said stronger oil and gas output plus sustained construction supported recovery, but elevated operating costs still pressured consumers and businesses.
Canada still faced fragile conditions: one former central bank leader warned recession risk near 30%, while housing experts expected a slow, uneven recovery.

Canada Small Businesses Steady Mortgage Outlook

Bank of Canada held policy rate at 2.25% citing Iran war and US trade uncertainty increasing volatility and clouding outlook.
War raised energy prices disrupted transport boosting inflation while Canada growth modest supported by spending but exports and investment weakened.
CPI reached 2.4% in March expected near 3% April inflation easing next year with next policy meeting scheduled June 2026.