John Cerini

Insurance availability and pricing now influence global valuations, financing terms, and exit outcomes throughout the deal lifecycle, making insurability a strategic diligence priority for investors.
Insurability is no longer a simple yes-or-no question; it can shift during ownership and materially affect asset value before exit planning decisions.
Long-term global insurance losses from natural catastrophes continue trending ~5% to ~7% annually in real terms, reinforcing adaptation and mitigation priorities now.
Leading diligence now reviews change-of-control issues, program gaps, uninsured exposures, compliance needs, and go-forward insurance cost, not just whether coverage exists today.
If long-term loss patterns return, global insured losses could reach $148B in 2026, with a peak-loss scenario up to $320B for planning purposes.

Climate Risk Reshapes Deals

Federal flood insurance makes coverage accessible, yet subsidies can lower the true cost of owning in risky coastal and waterfront areas nationwide.
Affordability is the bigger gap: in low-income neighborhoods, >90% of households are estimated underinsured, leaving flood losses harder to absorb after disasters.
Only ~37% of policyholders pay <$1K yearly, so some owners skip coverage or choose lower-premium plans with less disaster protection for recovery.
Severe repetitive loss homes are ~1% of insured properties but historically drew ~30% of claims, showing why mitigation support matters for safety.
Full-risk pricing may not arrive until ~2037; assistance, mitigation aid, and equitable buyouts can support safer low-income choices nationwide as transition continues.