Lorne Andrews

Canada’s headline CPI ran ~2.5% in Early-Q1, and could soon reach the BoC’s 2% target.
Easing shelter inflation helped, but core services ex-shelter stayed >3%, and groceries were ↑~5%.
Investors may price faster cuts on near-target CPI, but the BoC emphasizes core inflation and services.
Median and trim stayed ~2.5%; energy base effects helped yearly inflation, but an oil spike could reverse that.
Jobs softened in Early-Q1: employment fell and unemployment rose to 6.7%; RBC expects a long pause through 2026.
I’m watching inflation cool toward the central bank’s target, but some everyday costs still feel stubborn. With the job market softening, policymakers have more room to wait before cutting rates.

Canada's CPI May Reach 2%, BoC Waits

After the Late-Q1 conflict escalation, oil prices jumped and bond yields climbed, pushing insured 5-yr fixed rates higher.
Insured 5-yr fixed shifted from ~3.9% to ~4.2% as the central bank’s 5-yr bond yield rose ~40 bps.
Variable-rate contrast: lowest variable stayed 3.35% after the key rate was cut to 2.25% and later held.
Inflation stayed low: 1.8% in Late-Q1, below the 2% target, yet markets feared oil-driven future inflation.
An expert warned fixed pricing could stay elevated if oil volatility persists; US 30-yr refi avg. was 6.37%.
I’m seeing fixed mortgage costs rise as bond yields react to oil-price swings and inflation worries, even while inflation stays subdued and policy rates hold. Borrowers face tougher choices between fixed and variable options.