Ben Prohoroff

Crucial U.S. economic data this week will heavily influence dollar direction and Federal Reserve expectations.

Private-sector job numbers will signal labor strength and shape near-term interest-rate outlooks.

The Fed’s preferred PCE inflation data may determine whether policymakers maintain or cut rates in December.

Consumer spending and inflation surprises could spark sharp volatility in U.S. dollar trading.

U.S. Markets Face Critical Week

Markets now assign a 79% chance of a December Fed rate cut, up sharply from earlier this month.
Expectations surged after NY Fed President John Williams signaled support for more easing.
Fed officials are split, with some worried about inflation and others about a weakening labor market.
Traders have rapidly repriced bond futures as policy signals shifted repeatedly.
Missing inflation data from the government shutdown and mixed job numbers add uncertainty ahead of the meeting.