Kevin Oh

Mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury yield, not the Fed’s policy rate.

In 2026, the Fed is cautious, delaying rate cuts and keeping yields elevated.

Rates are hovering around 6.1% after briefly dipping below 6% in early 2026.

Key drivers include sticky inflation, energy prices, and investor term premiums.

Traders should watch the 10-year yield, inflation data, and Fed communication.

2026 Mortgage Rates: What Traders and Borrowers Watch

Mortgage rates have ticked up recently, and the outlook uses 10-yr Treasury yields as a key guide.
A forecast combines economists’ Treasury projections with AI, then adds a mortgage-rate spread to estimate 30-yr fixed rates.
Spread context: recent years ~2.5 points; 2010–2020 was <2 points, often near 1.5 points.
Recent snapshot: Late-Q1 2026 10-yr Treasury ~4.1%; 30-yr fixed ~6%; spread ~1.9 points.
AI scenarios: bull case near 5% by 2030; bear case ~7% by 2027, ~6.6% by 2030.
I’m watching mortgage rates stay closely tied to Treasury yields, with the gap between them playing a big role. Recent moves suggest only modest changes ahead, while different economic paths could still shift outcomes.