Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, typically about 2 percentage points higher. Forecasts predict Treasury yields will gradually ease to around 3.9%-4.3% by 2030, suggesting mortgage rates near 6% in five years. A "bull" scenario could see rates near 5%, while a "bear" case might push rates up to 7%. Significant drops below 3% are unlikely without major economic disruptions.