The average home price in the GTA fell below $1 million in January 2026, dropping 6.5% year-over-year to $973,289, with sales declining sharply to 3,082. Elevated supply is expected to keep prices stable, with 60,000-70,000 sales forecasted for 2026. First-time buyers may drive recovery, though renters face a $600 monthly affordability gap. Economic clarity could boost demand later in the year.